# ============================================================ # PPT CONTENT — Empirical urban-rural typology of Swedish municipalities # Correspondence Analysis + hierarchical clustering (2022 sampling) # Six-cluster cut # # Run from the project root (ruralitic-qrm/). # Figures are saved to ppt/figures/. Slide text is in the # comments below each section header. # ============================================================ library(tidyverse) library(FactoMineR) library(factoextra) library(ggrepel) library(showtext) font_add_google("Source Sans 3", "source_sans_3") showtext_auto() theme_ppt <- theme_minimal(base_size = 14, base_family = "source_sans_3") + theme( panel.grid.minor = element_blank(), panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = "grey92"), legend.position = "bottom", legend.title = element_text(face = "bold"), plot.margin = margin(8, 12, 8, 8) ) theme_set(theme_ppt) cluster_labels <- c( "1" = "Remote & peripheral", "2" = "Central industrial towns", "3" = "Peri-rural commuter belt", "4" = "Regional service centres", "5" = "Affluent suburbs & university satellites", "6" = "Inner Stockholm core" ) cluster_palette <- c( "1" = "#B07F4F", "2" = "#D7A86E", "3" = "#7CB07C", "4" = "#6FA8DC", "5" = "#C2738B", "6" = "#7A3A4F" ) county_names <- c( "01" = "Stockholm", "03" = "Uppsala", "04" = "Södermanland", "05" = "Östergötland", "06" = "Jönköping", "07" = "Kronoberg", "08" = "Kalmar", "09" = "Gotland", "10" = "Blekinge", "12" = "Skåne", "13" = "Halland", "14" = "Västra Götaland", "17" = "Värmland", "18" = "Örebro", "19" = "Västmanland", "20" = "Dalarna", "21" = "Gävleborg", "22" = "Västernorrland", "23" = "Jämtland", "24" = "Västerbotten", "25" = "Norrbotten" ) # Load data afc <- read_rds("data/processed/proportions_CA.rds") hcpc <- read_rds("data/processed/proportions_HCPC_6.rds") clusters <- read_csv("data/processed/cluster_assignment_6.csv", show_col_types = FALSE) |> rename(cluster = c6) |> mutate(cluster_label = cluster_labels[as.character(cluster)]) panel_raw <- readxl::read_excel("data/Municipalities_db_2.xlsx", col_types = "text", n_max = 290) |> transmute(municipality, code = str_pad(code, 4, "left", "0")) dim1_pct <- round(afc$eig[1, 2], 1) dim2_pct <- round(afc$eig[2, 2], 1) row_df <- as.data.frame(afc$row$coord[, 1:2]) |> rownames_to_column("municipality") |> left_join(clusters, by = "municipality") # ============================================================ # SLIDE 1 — Data & motivation # Title: "Building an urban–rural typology from the data" # # Bullet points: # • Sweden's 290 municipalities are routinely classified by # administrative or population-size rules (SCB). These categories # are imposed from outside the data. # • This analysis asks instead: how do municipalities actually differ # across structural dimensions? # • Data source: Statistics Sweden, 2022 project sampling. # • Six ACTIVE variable blocks: # Education (4 attainment levels) # Employment (16 activity sectors) # Housing (rented / tenant-owned / owner-occupied) # Workplace mobility (commuters in, commuters out, working locally) # Migration (in- and outmigration) # Demography (retirees, number of localities) # • Two SUPPLEMENTARY blocks projected post-hoc: # Educational provision (pre-school through HE, by ownership) # Opinion (survey satisfaction with local schools) # • Key pre-processing: block normalisation. Within each block, # every municipality is rescaled to the same total, preventing # Stockholm from dominating the analysis due to sheer size. # # No figure needed — use the variable block list as a visual # schematic or table in the slide. # ============================================================ # ============================================================ # SLIDE 2 — Correspondence analysis: the space of municipalities # Title: "Two dimensions capture two-thirds of the variation" # # Bullet points: # • CA places all 290 municipalities in a low-dimensional space # where proximity = similarity on the active variables. # • Dim 1 (rural–urban): Left pole → agriculture, mining & # manufacturing, owner-occupied housing, upper-secondary education. # Right pole → IT, finance, professional services, post-graduate # attainment, apartment housing. # • Dim 2 (labour-market self-containment): Top → residents work # where they live (Göteborg, Malmö, Umeå). Bottom → outbound # commuters, residential satellites (Knivsta, Salem, Staffanstorp). # • Together Dim 1 + Dim 2 account for ~65% of total variability. # # Figure: slide2_biplot.png # ============================================================ label_munis <- c("Stockholm", "Göteborg", "Malmö", "Uppsala", "Lund", "Umeå", "Linköping", "Solna", "Danderyd", "Kiruna", "Gotland", "Knivsta", "Falköping", "Tomelilla", "Skellefteå", "Piteå", "Partille", "Sundbyberg", "Lindesberg") contribs <- as.data.frame(afc$col$contrib) |> rownames_to_column("variable") |> mutate(total = `Dim 1` + `Dim 2`) |> arrange(desc(total)) |> head(15) col_df <- as.data.frame(afc$col$coord[, 1:2]) |> rownames_to_column("variable") |> filter(variable %in% contribs$variable) fig_biplot <- ggplot() + geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey60") + geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey60") + geom_point(data = row_df, aes(`Dim 1`, `Dim 2`, colour = cluster_label), alpha = 0.75, size = 2.2) + geom_text_repel( data = row_df |> filter(municipality %in% label_munis), aes(`Dim 1`, `Dim 2`, label = municipality), size = 3.5, colour = "grey20", family = "source_sans_3", max.overlaps = 30, segment.size = 0.25 ) + geom_point(data = col_df, aes(`Dim 1`, `Dim 2`), shape = 17, colour = "firebrick", size = 3) + geom_text_repel( data = col_df, aes(`Dim 1`, `Dim 2`, label = variable), colour = "firebrick", size = 3, family = "source_sans_3", max.overlaps = 30, segment.size = 0.25 ) + scale_colour_manual(values = cluster_palette |> set_names(cluster_labels), name = NULL) + labs( x = paste0("Dim 1 — rural–urban (", dim1_pct, "%)"), y = paste0("Dim 2 — labour-market self-containment (", dim2_pct, "%)") ) + guides(colour = guide_legend(nrow = 2)) ggsave("ppt/figures/slide2_biplot.png", fig_biplot, width = 11, height = 7, dpi = 150) message("Saved: ppt/figures/slide2_biplot.png") # ============================================================ # SLIDE 3 — Six empirical types of municipality # Title: "Six coherent types emerge from Ward clustering" # # Cluster descriptions: # # Cl 1 — Remote & peripheral # Most rural extreme. Agriculture/forestry/fishing, sparsely # populated, own full educational infrastructure at every age # (komvux, preschool). Examples: Kiruna, Piteå, Skellefteå, Gotland. # # Cl 2 — Central industrial towns # Rural-industrial, but not as remote. Mining & manufacturing # dominant. Owner-occupied housing, upper-secondary ceiling. # Examples: Falköping, Lindesberg, Hedemora. # # Cl 3 — Peri-rural commuter belt # Small southern and central rural municipalities. Many residents # commute out. Owner-occupied, construction and agriculture visible. # Below-average satisfaction with local high schools. # Examples: Tomelilla, Osby, Klippan, Sölvesborg. # # Cl 4 — Regional service centres # Mid-sized cities with self-contained labour markets. Rented and # tenant-owned housing, public administration, post-secondary # attainment. Examples: Göteborg, Malmö, Umeå, Linköping, Kalmar. # # Cl 5 — Affluent suburbs & university satellites # Outbound commuters, post-secondary attainment, tenant-owned # housing. Residential satellites whose labour markets sit elsewhere. # Examples: Lund, Mölndal, Partille, Huddinge, Knivsta, Kungsbacka. # # Cl 6 — Inner Stockholm core # Inbound commuting, IT and finance employment, apartment housing, # post-graduate attainment at extreme levels. These are destinations # in the commuting network, not origins. # Examples: Stockholm, Solna, Sundbyberg, Danderyd, Lidingö, Täby. # # Figures: slide3_clusters.png (main) · slide3_dendrogram.png (inset) # ============================================================ centroids <- row_df |> group_by(cluster_label) |> summarise(`Dim 1` = mean(`Dim 1`), `Dim 2` = mean(`Dim 2`), .groups = "drop") fig_clusters <- ggplot(row_df, aes(`Dim 1`, `Dim 2`, colour = cluster_label)) + geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey70") + geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey70") + geom_point(alpha = 0.5, size = 2) + stat_ellipse(level = 0.68, linewidth = 0.7) + geom_point(data = centroids, size = 5, shape = 18, colour = "grey15") + geom_label_repel( data = centroids, aes(label = cluster_label), fill = "white", colour = "black", family = "source_sans_3", size = 3.5, label.size = 0.25, label.padding = unit(0.3, "lines"), min.segment.length = 0, max.overlaps = 20 ) + scale_colour_manual(values = cluster_palette |> set_names(cluster_labels), guide = "none") + labs( x = paste0("Dim 1 — rural–urban (", dim1_pct, "%)"), y = paste0("Dim 2 — labour-market self-containment (", dim2_pct, "%)") ) ggsave("ppt/figures/slide3_clusters.png", fig_clusters, width = 11, height = 7, dpi = 150) message("Saved: ppt/figures/slide3_clusters.png") # Dendrogram with 6-cluster cut tree <- hcpc$call$t$tree h_max <- max(tree$height) fig_dendro <- fviz_dend( tree, k = 6, show_labels = FALSE, rect = TRUE, rect_border = unname(cluster_palette), rect_fill = TRUE, k_colors = unname(cluster_palette), main = "", ylab = "Merge distance (Ward)" ) + coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, h_max * 1.05)) + guides(linewidth = "none") + theme(plot.title = element_blank(), text = element_text(family = "source_sans_3", size = 13)) ggsave("ppt/figures/slide3_dendrogram.png", fig_dendro, width = 11, height = 4.5, dpi = 150) message("Saved: ppt/figures/slide3_dendrogram.png") # ============================================================ # SLIDE 4 — Geography & key takeaways # Title: "The typology maps coherently onto Swedish geography" # # Bullet points: # • Clusters 1 & 2 (both rural types) dominate almost everywhere # outside the metropolitan areas — the rural majority. # • Cluster 6 (inner Stockholm core) is confined to Stockholm and # Uppsala counties; cluster 5 (affluent suburbs) spreads into # Skåne (Lund) and Västra Götaland (Mölndal, Partille). # • Cluster 4 (regional centres) appears thinly but consistently # across most counties — one or two per county. # # Key takeaways: # • Biggest empirical break: NOT metro vs. non-metro, but between # two kinds of rural — remote & peripheral (Cl. 1), central # industrial towns (Cl. 2), and peri-rural commuters (Cl. 3). # • At the urban end, two kinds of city: self-contained regional # centres (Cl. 4) vs. the metropolitan region (Cl. 5 & 6). # • Within the metropolitan region, the data cleanly separate # residential suburbs that commute IN (Cl. 5) from the inner core # that receives commuters (Cl. 6). # # Figure: slide4_county.png # ============================================================ county_order <- c( "Skåne", "Blekinge", "Halland", "Kronoberg", "Kalmar", "Gotland", "Jönköping", "Östergötland", "Södermanland", "Västra Götaland", "Örebro", "Västmanland", "Stockholm", "Uppsala", "Dalarna", "Värmland", "Gävleborg", "Västernorrland", "Jämtland", "Västerbotten", "Norrbotten" ) clusters_geo <- clusters |> left_join(panel_raw, by = "municipality") |> mutate(county = county_names[str_sub(code, 1, 2)]) |> filter(!is.na(county)) fig_county <- clusters_geo |> count(county, cluster_label) |> mutate( county = factor(county, levels = county_order), cluster_label = factor(cluster_label, levels = cluster_labels) ) |> ggplot(aes(county, n, fill = cluster_label)) + geom_col(position = "fill") + scale_fill_manual(values = cluster_palette |> set_names(cluster_labels), name = NULL) + scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format(), expand = c(0, 0)) + labs(x = NULL, y = "Share of municipalities") + theme( axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 11), legend.position = "bottom", legend.text = element_text(size = 10) ) + guides(fill = guide_legend(nrow = 2)) ggsave("ppt/figures/slide4_county.png", fig_county, width = 12, height = 6.5, dpi = 150) message("Saved: ppt/figures/slide4_county.png") message("\nAll figures written to ppt/figures/. Ready to paste into the slide deck.")